Will AI replace Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
Estimated risk score: 31 out of 100
Lower replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (12 to 50).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 15 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 53-3052.00 · Transportation and Material Moving
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 4 of its 15 rated tasks. In O*NET’s words.
- Announce stops to passengers.
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.
- Report delays or accidents.
- Read maps to plan bus routes.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 11 of its 15 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers.
- Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride.
- Handle passenger emergencies or disruptions.
- Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure.
- Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach.
- Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board.
What the job is
Drive bus or motor coach, including regular route operations, charters, and private carriage. May assist passengers with baggage. May collect fares or tickets.
Also called: Bus Operator, Transit Bus Driver, Motor Coach Operator, Stage Driver, Jitney Driver, Charter Driver, Coach Operator, Transit Driver.
Closest jobs we score by hand
In the same field (Transportation and Material Moving). Different jobs, each scored by a person.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate