Will AI replace a Truck Driver?
Estimated risk score: 55 out of 100
Moderate replacement risk
Estimate · how we score
Our take: Autonomous trucks are coming for long-haul. Local and specialty work is safer.
Horizon: about 6 years. That is our estimate of how long until headcount in this role falls by 30% or more.
Median salary $55k a year · Trades
What AI already does well
- Long-haul interstate hauls on mapped corridors
- Routine logbook and DOT compliance paperwork
What keeps you valuable
A moderate score means some of today’s tasks in this role can be automated — not that you will lose your job. People in roles like yours stay valuable by moving toward the work AI is bad at. Build on these:
- Local delivery with frequent stops and customer interaction
- Specialty hauling (hazmat, oversized, livestock)
- Owner-operator business management
Keep going
The closest scores in Trades, then across all 41 jobs
How we score. Each score is our estimate, from 0 to 100, of how exposed a role is to AI replacement, calibrated against published research: Goldman Sachs on generative AI (2023), McKinsey’s State of AI surveys, Brynjolfsson and Mitchell (Science, 2017) and Frey and Osborne (2013; published 2017). It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree with a score? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. Read the methodology
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