Will AI replace a Plumber?
Estimated risk score: 11 out of 100
Very low replacement risk
Estimate · how we score
Our take: Same as electrician — the embodied trades are nearly untouchable.
Horizon: about 10 years. That is our estimate of how long until headcount in this role falls by 30% or more.
Median salary $60k a year · Trades
What AI already does well
- Estimate paperwork and dispatch logistics
Why this role holds up
- All hands-on plumbing work
- Emergency response and customer judgment
- Running a small contracting business
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The closest scores in Trades, then across all 41 jobs
How we score. Each score is our estimate, from 0 to 100, of how exposed a role is to AI replacement, calibrated against published research: Goldman Sachs on generative AI (2023), McKinsey’s State of AI surveys, Brynjolfsson and Mitchell (Science, 2017) and Frey and Osborne (2013; published 2017). It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree with a score? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. Read the methodology
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