Will AI replace a Primary Care Physician?
Estimated risk score: 32 out of 100
Lower replacement risk
Estimate · how we score
Our take: AI does the diagnosis. The visit, the touch, and the trust still belong to the doctor.
Horizon: about 6 years. That is our estimate of how long until headcount in this role falls by 30% or more.
Median salary $240k a year · Healthcare
What AI already does well
- Symptom-to-diagnosis triage for common conditions
- Routine prescription renewals and refills
- Note-taking and chart documentation
Why this role holds up
- Complex multi-condition patient management
- Procedures, physical exams, and hands-on care
- Long-term patient relationships and prevention
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The closest scores in Healthcare, then across all 41 jobs
How we score. Each score is our estimate, from 0 to 100, of how exposed a role is to AI replacement, calibrated against published research: Goldman Sachs on generative AI (2023), McKinsey’s State of AI surveys, Brynjolfsson and Mitchell (Science, 2017) and Frey and Osborne (2013; published 2017). It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree with a score? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. Read the methodology
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