Will AI replace Bakers?
Estimated risk score: 23 out of 100
Very low replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (4 to 42).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 18 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 51-3011.00 · Production
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 4 of its 18 rated tasks. In O*NET’s words.
- Prepare or maintain inventory or production records.
- Order or receive supplies or equipment.
- Develop new recipes for baked goods.
- Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 11 of its 18 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes.
- Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary.
- Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met.
- Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery.
- Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers.
- Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills.
What the job is
Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.
Also called: Panner, Sponger, Pie Baker, Pan Dumper, Pan Puller, Bagel Maker, Bread Baker, Night Baker.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate