Will AI replace Commercial Pilots?
Estimated risk score: 55 out of 100
Moderate replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (36 to 74).
Low confidence: the research disagrees with itself about this job (its tasks look automatable on paper but are rated as not sped up by AI).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 26 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 53-2012.00 · Transportation and Material Moving
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 10 of its 26 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
- Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.
- Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.
- File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
- Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.
- Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 14 of its 26 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.
- Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.
- Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.
- Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.
- Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.
- Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.
What the job is
Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.
Also called: Aviator, EMS Pilot, Balloonist, Test Pilot, Crop Duster, Rotor Pilot, Spray Pilot, Balloon Pilot.
Closest jobs we score by hand
In the same field (Transportation and Material Moving). Different jobs, each scored by a person.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate