Will AI replace Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers?
Estimated risk score: 16 out of 100
Very low replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (0 to 35).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 30 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 49-9021.00 · Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 2 of its 30 rated tasks. In O*NET’s words.
- Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions.
- Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 26 of its 30 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Adjust system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system.
- Braze or solder parts to repair defective joints and leaks.
- Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area.
- Connect heating or air conditioning equipment to fuel, water, or refrigerant source to form complete circuit.
- Cut or drill holes in floors, walls, or roof to install equipment, using power saws or drills.
- Install auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment, such as expansion or discharge valves, air ducts, pipes, blowers, dampers, flues, or stokers.
What the job is
Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.
Also called: Refrigeration Mechanic, Refrigeration Technician (Refrigeration Tech), HVAC Mechanic (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Mechanic), HVAC Tech, A/C Mechanic, Cooling Tech, Gas Adjuster, Heating Tech.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate