Will AI replace Postal Service Mail Carriers?
Estimated risk score: 47 out of 100
Moderate replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (28 to 66).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 22 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 43-5052.00 · Office and Administrative Support
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 9 of its 22 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Scan labels on letters or parcels to confirm receipt.
- Answer customers' questions about postal services and regulations.
- Maintain accurate records of deliveries.
- Record address changes and redirect mail for those addresses.
- Complete forms that notify publishers of address changes.
- Provide customers with change of address cards and other forms.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 13 of its 22 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Bundle mail in preparation for delivery or transportation to relay boxes.
- Deliver mail to residences and business establishments along specified routes by walking or driving, using a combination of satchels, carts, cars, and small trucks.
- Meet schedules for the collection and return of mail.
- Return to the post office with mail collected from homes, businesses, and public mailboxes.
- Sign for cash-on-delivery and registered mail before leaving the post office.
- Hold mail for customers who are away from delivery locations.
What the job is
Sort and deliver mail for the United States Postal Service (USPS). Deliver mail on established route by vehicle or on foot. Includes postal service mail carriers employed by USPS contractors.
Also called: Letter Carrier, City Letter Carrier, Rural Carrier Associate (RCA), Carrier, Mailman, Postman, Mail Rider, Clerk Carrier.
Closest jobs we score by hand
In the same field (Office and Administrative Support). Different jobs, each scored by a person.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate