Will AI replace Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers?
Estimated risk score: 23 out of 100
Very low replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (4 to 42).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 25 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 53-4013.00 · Transportation and Material Moving
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 5 of its 25 rated tasks. In O*NET’s words.
- Confer with conductors and other workers via radiotelephones or computers to exchange switching information.
- Receive, relay, and act upon instructions and inquiries from train operations and customer service center personnel.
- Report arrival and departure times, train delays, work order completion, and time on duty.
- Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed.
- Read switching instructions and daily car schedules to determine work to be performed, or receive orders from yard conductors.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 20 of its 25 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Apply and release hand brakes.
- Couple and uncouple air hoses and electrical connections between cars.
- Drive engines within railroad yards or other establishments to couple, uncouple, or switch railroad cars.
- Drive locomotives to and from various stations in roundhouses to have locomotives cleaned, serviced, repaired, or supplied.
- Inspect engines before and after use to ensure proper operation.
- Inspect the condition of stationary trains, rolling stock, and equipment.
What the job is
Drive switching or other locomotive or dinkey engines within railroad yard, industrial plant, quarry, construction project, or similar location.
Also called: Railcar Switcher, Larriman, Switcher, Car Mover, Coal Trammer, Yard Hostler, Dinkey Driver, Dump Motorman.
Closest jobs we score by hand
In the same field (Transportation and Material Moving). Different jobs, each scored by a person.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate