Will AI replace Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters?
Estimated risk score: 53 out of 100
Moderate replacement risk
Estimate from published task research, not reviewed by a person · how we estimate
Within about 19 points for 4 in 5 of the jobs we checked (34 to 72).
For the occupation as a whole, from ratings of its 22 O*NET tasks published in 2023 and calibrated to our hand scores. A specialty inside it can sit higher or lower.
O*NET-SOC 53-4031.00 · Transportation and Material Moving
Tasks rated in 2023 as ones AI could do or speed up
Tasks a GPT-4-class model could do, or do in half the time or less: 7 of its 22 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.
- Record departure and arrival times, messages, tickets and revenue collected, and passenger accommodations and destinations.
- Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.
- Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.
- Operate controls to activate track switches and traffic signals.
- Verify accuracy of timekeeping instruments with engineers to ensure trains depart on time.
Tasks rated in 2023 as not sped up by AI
Tasks such a model was rated as not speeding up or taking over: 9 of its 22 rated tasks; the first 6 are shown. In O*NET’s words.
- Direct engineers to move cars to fit planned train configurations, combining or separating cars to make up or break up trains.
- Signal engineers to begin train runs, stop trains, or change speed, using telecommunications equipment or hand signals.
- Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.
- Direct and instruct workers engaged in yard activities, such as switching tracks, coupling and uncoupling cars, and routing inbound and outbound traffic.
- Inspect each car periodically during runs.
- Instruct workers to set warning signals in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops.
What the job is
Coordinate activities of switch-engine crew within railroad yard, industrial plant, or similar location. Conductors coordinate activities of train crew on passenger or freight trains. Yardmasters review train schedules and switching orders and coordinate activities of workers engaged in railroad traffic operations, such as the makeup or breakup of trains and yard switching.
Also called: Yardmaster, Railroad Conductor, Motor Boss, Yard Pilot, Car Spotter, CTC Operator, Road Conductor, Test Conductor.
Closest jobs we score by hand
In the same field (Transportation and Material Moving). Different jobs, each scored by a person.
Source. This site includes information from the O*NET 30.1 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. (O*NET, CC BY 4.0.) Task ratings: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models”, data used under the MIT licence (licence texts). Our change: we averaged the ratings over this occupation’s tasks and calibrated them to our 0–100 scale. It is not a prediction about any one person and not career advice. Disagree? Write to hello@yourstopwashit.com. How we estimate